Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Caverion Oyj (CAV1V.HE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.61 - $8.67$7.03
Multi-Stage$12.59 - $13.87$13.22
Blended Fair Value$10.12
Current Price$8.76
Upside15.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS0.00%0.00%0.200.170.200.000.050.000.000.260.200.20
YoY Growth--18.10%-15.02%27,200.00%-98.53%0.00%0.00%-100.00%27.17%-0.36%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.33%2.45%3.13%0.01%0.69%0.00%0.00%3.24%2.24%3.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)82.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.5210.336.20
Cash Retained (M)55.2055.2055.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.52-10.33-6.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.6844.8849.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)136.69136.69136.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.330.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.330.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.61$7.03$8.67
Upside / Downside-35.99%-19.78%-1.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)82.6081.7780.9680.1579.3578.5580.91
Payout Ratio33.17%44.54%55.90%67.27%78.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.4036.4245.2653.9162.3970.7074.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)33.8734.2134.56
Year 2 PV (M)39.1439.9440.75
Year 3 PV (M)43.3644.7046.06
Year 4 PV (M)46.6648.5950.59
Year 5 PV (M)49.1651.7254.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,508.991,587.571,669.38
Equity Value (M)1,721.171,806.731,895.73
Shares Outstanding (M)136.69136.69136.69
Fair Value$12.59$13.22$13.87
Upside / Downside43.74%50.89%58.32%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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