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Definitive Analysis

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Buzzi Unicem S.p.A. (BZU.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,051.60 - $2,022.67$1,895.54
Multi-Stage$311.55 - $341.27$326.14
Blended Fair Value$1,110.84
Current Price$47.06
Upside2,260.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.10%26.86%0.610.450.401.050.170.140.150.110.080.06
YoY Growth--33.19%13.58%-61.77%503.36%19.74%-5.60%36.89%33.33%50.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.70%1.65%2.22%5.52%0.89%0.65%1.01%0.49%0.37%0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,864.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)344.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,519.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)372.82233.01139.81
Cash Retained (M)1,519.641,519.641,519.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-372.82-233.01-139.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,146.831,286.631,379.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)183.28183.28183.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.267.027.53
LTM Dividend per Share1.881.881.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.267.027.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.148.909.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,051.60$1,895.54$2,022.67
Upside / Downside2,134.60%3,927.91%4,198.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,864.081,985.242,114.282,251.712,398.072,553.952,630.57
Payout Ratio18.48%32.78%47.09%61.39%75.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)344.44650.80995.541,382.351,815.232,298.552,433.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)606.39612.14617.89
Year 2 PV (M)864.30880.77897.38
Year 3 PV (M)1,118.221,150.321,183.03
Year 4 PV (M)1,368.191,420.801,474.92
Year 5 PV (M)1,614.251,692.221,773.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,529.5954,018.4956,602.64
Equity Value (M)57,100.9459,774.7462,549.04
Shares Outstanding (M)183.28183.28183.28
Fair Value$311.55$326.14$341.27
Upside / Downside562.02%593.02%625.19%

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