Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Brambles Limited (BXB.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.05 - $47.15$31.39
Multi-Stage$30.52 - $33.50$31.98
Blended Fair Value$31.69
Current Price$15.41
Upside105.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.32%3.99%0.380.290.230.220.200.340.240.250.250.15
YoY Growth--30.91%27.43%4.53%8.55%-40.75%44.44%-6.79%1.15%69.67%-42.92%
Dividend Yield--2.48%3.08%2.39%2.96%2.35%4.54%2.72%3.94%3.43%1.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,675.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)670.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,005.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)335.18209.49125.69
Cash Retained (M)1,005.001,005.001,005.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-335.18-209.49-125.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)669.82795.51879.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,392.061,392.061,392.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.570.63
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.570.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.961.051.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate1.99%2.99%3.99%
Fair Value$22.05$31.39$47.15
Upside / Downside43.06%103.72%206.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,675.901,726.061,777.721,830.931,885.741,942.182,000.44
Payout Ratio40.03%50.03%60.02%70.01%80.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)670.90863.481,066.981,281.891,508.711,747.961,850.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate1.99%2.99%3.99%
Year 1 PV (M)803.29811.16819.04
Year 2 PV (M)923.42941.61959.99
Year 3 PV (M)1,032.081,062.741,093.99
Year 4 PV (M)1,130.031,175.001,221.31
Year 5 PV (M)1,217.971,278.861,342.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,383.3839,252.3141,195.25
Equity Value (M)42,490.1644,521.6946,631.75
Shares Outstanding (M)1,392.061,392.061,392.06
Fair Value$30.52$31.98$33.50
Upside / Downside98.07%107.54%117.38%

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