Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Consórcio Alfa de Administração S.A. (BRGE5.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - ConglomeratesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.48 - $6.96$5.63
Multi-Stage$5.25 - $5.75$5.49
Blended Fair Value$5.56
Current Price$10.82
Upside-48.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS3.70%1.30%0.070.060.060.030.060.050.050.050.000.04
YoY Growth--3.14%2.56%77.83%-39.42%5.22%0.20%7.88%0.00%-100.00%-23.36%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.55%0.63%0.26%0.26%1.51%2.71%2.01%0.00%1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.744.212.53
Cash Retained (M)28.8828.8828.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.74-4.21-2.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.1424.6726.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)73.6573.6573.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate1.70%2.70%3.70%
Fair Value$4.48$5.63$6.96
Upside / Downside-58.59%-48.00%-35.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.6834.5935.5236.4837.4638.4739.63
Payout Ratio14.26%29.41%44.55%59.70%74.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.8010.1715.8321.7828.0434.6236.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate1.70%2.70%3.70%
Year 1 PV (M)9.169.259.34
Year 2 PV (M)12.8313.0813.34
Year 3 PV (M)15.8916.3616.84
Year 4 PV (M)18.4219.1519.91
Year 5 PV (M)20.4721.5022.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)309.60325.13341.27
Equity Value (M)386.36404.47423.26
Shares Outstanding (M)73.6573.6573.65
Fair Value$5.25$5.49$5.75
Upside / Downside-51.51%-49.24%-46.88%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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