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Definitive Analysis

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Banco Pan S.A. (BPAN4.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.82 - $115.07$100.88
Multi-Stage$14.66 - $16.04$15.34
Blended Fair Value$58.11
Current Price$7.78
Upside646.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.78%0.00%0.220.260.240.200.160.070.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---14.69%7.85%16.40%26.66%132.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.00%2.81%4.95%2.14%1.66%1.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)722.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)302.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)420.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)144.5990.3754.22
Cash Retained (M)420.94420.94420.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-144.59-90.37-54.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)276.36330.58366.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,249.491,249.491,249.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.260.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.260.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$31.82$100.88$115.07
Upside / Downside309.05%1,196.69%1,379.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)722.94769.94819.98873.28930.04990.501,020.21
Payout Ratio41.77%51.42%61.06%70.71%80.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)302.00395.89500.71617.49747.33891.45943.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)366.40369.87373.35
Year 2 PV (M)428.89437.06445.31
Year 3 PV (M)489.52503.57517.89
Year 4 PV (M)548.32569.40591.09
Year 5 PV (M)605.33634.57664.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,883.3516,650.5317,447.06
Equity Value (M)18,321.8119,165.0020,039.62
Shares Outstanding (M)1,249.491,249.491,249.49
Fair Value$14.66$15.34$16.04
Upside / Downside88.48%97.15%106.15%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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