Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT BISI International Tbk (BISI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$287.16 - $403.30$344.88
Multi-Stage$890.24 - $983.45$935.89
Blended Fair Value$640.38
Current Price$875.00
Upside-26.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.36%20.89%80.0068.0068.0038.0038.00100.00100.0088.0033.0021.00
YoY Growth--17.65%0.00%78.95%0.00%-62.00%0.00%13.64%166.67%57.14%75.00%
Dividend Yield--7.48%3.51%3.99%2.86%3.36%16.13%7.19%4.46%1.76%1.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)144,541.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)60,541.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28,908.2018,067.6310,840.58
Cash Retained (M)60,541.0060,541.0060,541.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-28,908.20-18,067.63-10,840.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)31,632.8042,473.3849,700.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,000.003,000.003,000.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.5414.1616.57
LTM Dividend per Share28.0028.0028.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.5414.1616.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend38.5442.1644.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-6.36%-5.36%-4.36%
Fair Value$287.16$344.88$403.30
Upside / Downside-67.18%-60.59%-53.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)144,541.00136,786.74129,448.47122,503.88115,931.86109,712.40113,003.77
Payout Ratio58.11%64.49%70.87%77.25%83.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84,000.0088,216.5091,738.8494,629.3596,945.7098,741.16104,528.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-6.36%-5.36%-4.36%
Year 1 PV (M)82,185.9383,063.6583,941.37
Year 2 PV (M)79,624.8281,334.6583,062.64
Year 3 PV (M)76,518.9078,996.7881,527.59
Year 4 PV (M)73,032.9876,203.2179,475.55
Year 5 PV (M)69,300.5073,080.9477,024.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,290,068.372,414,995.052,545,315.16
Equity Value (M)2,670,731.492,807,674.282,950,346.91
Shares Outstanding (M)3,000.003,000.003,000.00
Fair Value$890.24$935.89$983.45
Upside / Downside1.74%6.96%12.39%

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