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Definitive Analysis

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Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited (BAY-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.95 - $90.92$69.36
Multi-Stage$83.52 - $91.78$87.57
Blended Fair Value$78.46
Current Price$23.50
Upside233.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.19%2.65%0.860.860.860.750.450.850.870.860.810.84
YoY Growth--0.04%-0.03%14.40%66.67%-47.06%-1.80%0.52%6.16%-3.32%27.00%
Dividend Yield--3.78%3.18%2.96%2.13%1.20%4.47%2.32%2.14%2.11%2.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30,887.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,365.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)24,522.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,177.553,860.972,316.58
Cash Retained (M)24,522.2724,522.2724,522.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,177.55-3,860.97-2,316.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)18,344.7220,661.3022,205.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,355.767,355.767,355.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.492.813.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.492.813.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.363.673.88
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate0.65%1.65%2.65%
Fair Value$52.95$69.36$90.92
Upside / Downside125.33%195.13%286.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30,887.7531,397.2331,915.1132,441.5332,976.6433,520.5734,526.18
Payout Ratio20.61%34.49%48.37%62.24%76.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,365.4810,827.8815,435.7620,192.7025,102.3730,168.5131,936.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate0.65%1.65%2.65%
Year 1 PV (M)10,016.7310,116.2510,215.77
Year 2 PV (M)13,209.7013,473.5013,739.90
Year 3 PV (M)15,986.0816,467.3216,958.12
Year 4 PV (M)18,384.2119,125.7919,889.59
Year 5 PV (M)20,439.3321,475.0822,552.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)536,305.65563,482.60591,750.29
Equity Value (M)614,341.71644,140.54675,106.07
Shares Outstanding (M)7,355.767,355.767,355.76
Fair Value$83.52$87.57$91.78
Upside / Downside255.40%272.64%290.55%

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