Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Axfood AB (publ) (AXFO.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,001.82 - $1,951.06$1,828.43
Multi-Stage$313.13 - $342.23$327.41
Blended Fair Value$1,077.92
Current Price$292.10
Upside269.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.57%8.73%8.468.117.597.247.006.776.855.818.714.15
YoY Growth--4.26%6.87%4.91%3.43%3.41%-1.21%17.95%-33.35%110.12%13.22%
Dividend Yield--3.75%2.60%3.00%2.38%3.38%3.37%4.01%4.10%6.53%2.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,127.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,889.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)238.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)425.40265.88159.53
Cash Retained (M)238.00238.00238.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-425.40-265.88-159.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)-187.40-27.8878.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)216.81216.81216.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.86-0.130.36
LTM Dividend per Share8.718.718.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.86-0.130.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.858.589.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,001.82$1,828.43$1,951.06
Upside / Downside242.97%525.96%567.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,127.002,265.262,412.502,569.312,736.312,914.173,001.60
Payout Ratio88.81%89.05%89.29%89.52%89.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,889.002,017.172,154.032,300.152,456.172,622.762,776.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,879.341,897.151,914.96
Year 2 PV (M)1,869.711,905.321,941.27
Year 3 PV (M)1,860.121,913.521,967.93
Year 4 PV (M)1,850.561,921.731,994.93
Year 5 PV (M)1,841.051,929.972,022.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)58,588.6061,418.4564,356.61
Equity Value (M)67,889.3870,986.1474,198.00
Shares Outstanding (M)216.81216.81216.81
Fair Value$313.13$327.41$342.23
Upside / Downside7.20%12.09%17.16%

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