Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

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Sector

Avio S.p.A. (AVIO.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.84 - $1.09$0.98
Multi-Stage$1.86 - $2.04$1.95
Blended Fair Value$1.46
Current Price$23.65
Upside-93.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.35%-39.73%0.230.000.170.280.000.440.380.000.008.26
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-38.53%0.00%-100.00%15.78%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-76.82%
Dividend Yield--1.62%0.00%1.77%2.35%0.00%3.14%3.34%0.00%0.00%83.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.510.950.57
Cash Retained (M)0.810.810.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.51-0.95-0.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.70-0.130.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.6226.6226.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate-13.44%-12.44%-11.44%
Fair Value$0.84$0.98$1.09
Upside / Downside-96.43%-95.87%-95.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7.566.625.805.084.453.894.01
Payout Ratio89.27%89.42%89.56%89.71%89.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.755.925.194.553.993.503.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate-13.44%-12.44%-11.44%
Year 1 PV (M)5.335.395.45
Year 2 PV (M)4.204.304.40
Year 3 PV (M)3.323.433.55
Year 4 PV (M)2.622.742.87
Year 5 PV (M)2.072.192.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)31.8533.7335.70
Equity Value (M)49.3851.7954.29
Shares Outstanding (M)26.6226.6226.62
Fair Value$1.86$1.95$2.04
Upside / Downside-92.16%-91.77%-91.38%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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