Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (ASELS.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$80.65 - $170.34$114.32
Multi-Stage$57.62 - $63.01$60.26
Blended Fair Value$87.29
Current Price$150.80
Upside-42.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.51%21.10%0.040.050.030.020.060.040.020.020.010.01
YoY Growth---22.62%43.28%47.99%-59.00%44.94%105.67%12.05%79.76%-35.38%160.00%
Dividend Yield--0.03%0.09%0.13%0.19%0.74%0.65%0.35%0.21%0.22%0.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,709.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)169.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)19,539.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,941.822,463.641,478.18
Cash Retained (M)19,539.4519,539.4519,539.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,941.82-2,463.64-1,478.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)15,597.6317,075.8118,061.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,560.004,560.004,560.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.423.743.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.423.743.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.463.784.00
WACC / Discount Rate10.02%10.02%10.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$80.65$114.32$170.34
Upside / Downside-46.52%-24.19%12.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,709.0920,990.1822,354.5423,807.5925,355.0827,003.1627,813.25
Payout Ratio0.86%18.69%36.52%54.34%72.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)169.643,922.778,163.0812,938.0618,299.3024,302.8425,727.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.02%10.02%10.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,531.923,565.403,598.88
Year 2 PV (M)6,617.476,743.516,870.75
Year 3 PV (M)9,443.349,714.439,990.65
Year 4 PV (M)12,025.6912,488.1612,963.85
Year 5 PV (M)14,379.7515,074.2915,795.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)216,748.79227,217.84238,087.56
Equity Value (M)262,746.96274,803.64287,307.11
Shares Outstanding (M)4,560.004,560.004,560.00
Fair Value$57.62$60.26$63.01
Upside / Downside-61.79%-60.04%-58.22%

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