Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,531.34 - $14,675.43$13,753.03
Multi-Stage$2,293.09 - $2,509.56$2,399.34
Blended Fair Value$8,076.18
Current Price$1,930.00
Upside318.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS61.14%22.20%28.6824.0618.789.3019.412.645.774.354.353.85
YoY Growth--19.20%28.12%101.94%-52.09%635.23%-54.25%32.64%0.00%12.99%-0.35%
Dividend Yield--1.40%0.83%0.65%0.61%2.16%0.33%0.64%0.71%0.84%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,064,186.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,416,401.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,647,785.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)612,837.20383,023.25229,813.95
Cash Retained (M)1,647,785.001,647,785.001,647,785.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-612,837.20-383,023.25-229,813.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,034,947.801,264,761.751,417,971.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41,524.5041,524.5041,524.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share24.9230.4634.15
LTM Dividend per Share34.1134.1134.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share24.9230.4634.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend59.0364.5768.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7,531.34$13,753.03$14,675.43
Upside / Downside290.23%612.59%660.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,064,186.003,263,358.093,475,476.373,701,382.333,941,972.184,198,200.374,324,146.38
Payout Ratio46.22%54.98%63.73%72.49%81.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,416,401.001,794,178.112,215,081.952,683,122.883,202,650.423,778,380.343,999,835.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,671,571.811,687,416.091,703,260.37
Year 2 PV (M)1,922,687.781,959,309.581,996,276.88
Year 3 PV (M)2,169,796.562,232,083.622,295,551.45
Year 4 PV (M)2,412,945.292,505,740.352,601,186.51
Year 5 PV (M)2,652,180.612,780,281.922,913,285.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)84,390,375.7088,466,462.4092,698,550.53
Equity Value (M)95,219,557.7599,631,293.97104,208,111.72
Shares Outstanding (M)41,524.5041,524.5041,524.50
Fair Value$2,293.09$2,399.34$2,509.56
Upside / Downside18.81%24.32%30.03%

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