Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Makmur Berkah Amanda Tbk (AMAN.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$161.98 - $246.80$201.74
Multi-Stage$330.79 - $364.68$347.40
Blended Fair Value$274.57
Current Price$101.00
Upside171.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%1.000.000.500.500.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.03%0.00%0.17%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70,939.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,873.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)67,066.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14,187.998,867.495,320.50
Cash Retained (M)67,066.4567,066.4567,066.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-14,187.99-8,867.49-5,320.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)52,878.4658,198.9661,745.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,873.503,873.503,873.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.6515.0215.94
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.6515.0215.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.6516.0216.94
WACC / Discount Rate6.86%6.86%6.86%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$161.98$201.74$246.80
Upside / Downside60.38%99.74%144.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70,939.9570,230.5569,528.2568,832.9768,144.6467,463.1969,487.09
Payout Ratio5.46%22.37%39.28%56.18%73.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,873.5015,709.3127,308.0238,673.1849,808.3160,716.8764,275.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.86%6.86%6.86%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)14,551.8014,700.2914,848.77
Year 2 PV (M)23,431.9923,912.6324,398.16
Year 3 PV (M)30,738.9031,689.5232,659.54
Year 4 PV (M)36,672.4338,192.3339,758.99
Year 5 PV (M)41,410.1443,566.4645,811.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,134,504.411,193,580.681,255,092.71
Equity Value (M)1,281,309.661,345,641.911,412,569.86
Shares Outstanding (M)3,873.503,873.503,873.50
Fair Value$330.79$347.40$364.68
Upside / Downside227.51%243.96%261.06%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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