Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Autoliv, Inc. (ALV)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.86 - $168.24$132.79
Multi-Stage$206.53 - $227.25$216.69
Blended Fair Value$174.74
Current Price$123.50
Upside41.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.18%1.17%2.802.882.872.110.692.782.742.672.602.51
YoY Growth---2.67%0.45%35.76%204.99%-75.07%1.26%2.68%2.91%3.63%0.41%
Dividend Yield--3.17%2.39%3.07%2.76%0.75%6.04%3.57%2.54%3.53%2.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)752.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)228.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)524.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)150.4094.0056.40
Cash Retained (M)524.00524.00524.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-150.40-94.00-56.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)373.60430.00467.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)78.0878.0878.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.795.515.99
LTM Dividend per Share2.922.922.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.795.515.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.718.438.91
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-0.82%0.18%1.18%
Fair Value$103.86$132.79$168.24
Upside / Downside-15.90%7.52%36.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)752.00753.35754.70756.05757.41758.77781.53
Payout Ratio30.32%42.26%54.19%66.13%78.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)228.00318.33408.98499.96591.26682.89722.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-0.82%0.18%1.18%
Year 1 PV (M)295.81298.80301.78
Year 2 PV (M)353.17360.33367.56
Year 3 PV (M)401.20413.45425.96
Year 4 PV (M)440.90458.95477.56
Year 5 PV (M)473.21497.55522.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,160.5214,888.9515,647.05
Equity Value (M)16,124.8116,918.0317,742.78
Shares Outstanding (M)78.0878.0878.08
Fair Value$206.53$216.69$227.25
Upside / Downside67.23%75.46%84.01%

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