Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Aliansce Sonae Shopping Centers S.A. (ALSO3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$664.15 - $1,447.29$1,356.32
Multi-Stage$214.16 - $234.65$224.22
Blended Fair Value$790.27
Current Price$22.59
Upside3,398.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS24.01%15.35%0.230.140.000.200.080.080.080.080.080.06
YoY Growth--69.97%0.00%-100.00%146.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%30.00%9.37%
Dividend Yield--1.34%0.60%0.00%0.74%0.27%0.33%0.36%0.50%0.42%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,158.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)292.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,865.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)631.66394.79236.87
Cash Retained (M)2,865.422,865.422,865.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-631.66-394.79-236.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,233.752,470.632,628.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)433.99433.99433.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.155.696.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.155.696.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.826.376.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$664.15$1,356.32$1,447.29
Upside / Downside2,840.03%5,904.07%6,306.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,158.313,363.603,582.233,815.084,063.064,327.164,456.97
Payout Ratio9.27%25.42%41.56%57.71%73.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)292.89854.991,488.932,201.663,000.763,894.444,122.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)795.83803.38810.92
Year 2 PV (M)1,290.011,314.581,339.39
Year 3 PV (M)1,775.541,826.511,878.45
Year 4 PV (M)2,252.532,339.162,428.26
Year 5 PV (M)2,721.102,852.532,989.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)84,109.7688,172.3092,390.31
Equity Value (M)92,944.7997,308.47101,836.33
Shares Outstanding (M)433.99433.99433.99
Fair Value$214.16$224.22$234.65
Upside / Downside848.04%892.55%938.74%

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