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Definitive Analysis

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Cogelec S.A. (ALLEC.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.70 - $19.35$15.81
Multi-Stage$26.98 - $29.68$28.30
Blended Fair Value$22.06
Current Price$25.00
Upside-11.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.380.290.000.000.000.000.240.180.180.18
YoY Growth--29.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%33.33%0.00%-0.13%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.42%4.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%3.73%1.52%1.52%1.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.381.490.89
Cash Retained (M)6.306.306.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.38-1.49-0.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.934.825.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.308.308.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.580.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.580.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.151.251.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.70$15.81$19.35
Upside / Downside-49.22%-36.74%-22.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.8911.7711.6611.5411.4211.3111.65
Payout Ratio46.99%55.59%64.19%72.80%81.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.596.547.488.409.3010.1810.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)6.066.136.19
Year 2 PV (M)6.426.556.69
Year 3 PV (M)6.686.897.10
Year 4 PV (M)6.857.137.43
Year 5 PV (M)6.957.317.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)190.83200.77211.12
Equity Value (M)223.79234.77246.19
Shares Outstanding (M)8.308.308.30
Fair Value$26.98$28.30$29.68
Upside / Downside7.91%13.21%18.72%

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