Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AKVA group ASA (AKVA.OL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.44 - $96.81$74.66
Multi-Stage$77.68 - $85.24$81.39
Blended Fair Value$78.02
Current Price$82.00
Upside-4.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.001.000.910.961.601.220.890.530.71
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%10.37%-5.72%-39.88%31.13%37.38%66.56%-24.71%-0.38%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%1.70%1.11%1.05%3.41%1.81%1.35%0.80%1.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)171.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)135.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.2721.4212.85
Cash Retained (M)135.05135.05135.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.27-21.42-12.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)100.78113.63122.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)36.3236.3236.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.773.133.36
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.773.133.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.774.134.36
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate1.31%2.31%3.31%
Fair Value$57.44$74.66$96.81
Upside / Downside-29.95%-8.95%18.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)171.36175.32179.38183.53187.77192.11197.87
Payout Ratio21.19%34.95%48.71%62.48%76.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.3161.2887.38114.66143.15172.90183.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate1.31%2.31%3.31%
Year 1 PV (M)56.2056.7557.31
Year 2 PV (M)73.5074.9676.43
Year 3 PV (M)88.4591.1093.79
Year 4 PV (M)101.28105.34109.52
Year 5 PV (M)112.19117.84123.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,389.882,510.182,635.27
Equity Value (M)2,821.502,956.173,096.04
Shares Outstanding (M)36.3236.3236.32
Fair Value$77.68$81.39$85.24
Upside / Downside-5.27%-0.75%3.95%

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