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Definitive Analysis

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AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) Public Company Limited (AEONTS-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$145.61 - $243.94$188.80
Multi-Stage$265.97 - $292.60$279.03
Blended Fair Value$233.91
Current Price$108.00
Upside116.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.30%4.89%5.565.555.225.234.494.964.783.513.483.45
YoY Growth--0.25%6.30%-0.21%16.51%-9.56%3.75%36.27%1.03%0.68%-0.02%
Dividend Yield--5.40%3.74%2.62%2.74%2.22%3.57%2.32%2.22%3.10%3.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,077.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)647.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,429.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)615.48384.68230.81
Cash Retained (M)2,429.922,429.922,429.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-615.48-384.68-230.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,814.442,045.242,199.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)249.83249.83249.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.268.198.80
LTM Dividend per Share2.592.592.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.268.198.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.8510.7811.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-0.16%0.84%1.84%
Fair Value$145.61$188.80$243.94
Upside / Downside34.83%74.82%125.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,077.423,103.283,129.363,155.653,182.173,208.913,305.18
Payout Ratio21.04%34.83%48.62%62.42%76.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)647.501,080.941,521.621,969.642,425.072,888.023,057.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-0.16%0.84%1.84%
Year 1 PV (M)1,003.991,014.041,024.10
Year 2 PV (M)1,312.681,339.111,365.80
Year 3 PV (M)1,578.211,626.111,674.97
Year 4 PV (M)1,804.811,878.211,953.83
Year 5 PV (M)1,996.332,098.332,204.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)58,752.1861,754.0364,877.33
Equity Value (M)66,448.2169,709.8373,100.49
Shares Outstanding (M)249.83249.83249.83
Fair Value$265.97$279.03$292.60
Upside / Downside146.27%158.36%170.92%

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