Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$88.15 - $150.00$115.02
Multi-Stage$70.60 - $76.97$73.72
Blended Fair Value$94.37
Current Price$168.56
Upside-44.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.83%28.65%1.331.271.210.550.380.210.170.150.140.12
YoY Growth--5.17%4.99%121.08%44.63%80.49%25.54%10.37%6.58%19.93%10.07%
Dividend Yield--1.23%2.07%2.37%0.89%0.65%0.53%0.39%0.36%0.33%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,419.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)717.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,701.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)683.83427.39256.43
Cash Retained (M)2,701.632,701.632,701.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-683.83-427.39-256.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,017.802,274.242,445.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)503.53503.53503.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.014.524.86
LTM Dividend per Share1.421.421.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.014.524.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.435.946.28
WACC / Discount Rate12.00%12.00%12.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$88.15$115.02$150.00
Upside / Downside-47.70%-31.76%-11.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,419.133,641.373,878.064,130.134,398.594,684.504,825.03
Payout Ratio20.98%34.79%48.59%62.39%76.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)717.501,266.751,884.382,576.953,351.594,216.054,463.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.00%12.00%12.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,120.401,131.021,141.64
Year 2 PV (M)1,474.101,502.181,530.52
Year 3 PV (M)1,782.971,834.161,886.31
Year 4 PV (M)2,051.022,129.892,211.02
Year 5 PV (M)2,281.932,392.152,506.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,836.8128,133.0429,478.88
Equity Value (M)35,547.2437,122.4438,754.96
Shares Outstanding (M)503.53503.53503.53
Fair Value$70.60$73.72$76.97
Upside / Downside-58.12%-56.26%-54.34%

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