Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NetEase, Inc. (9999.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electronic Gaming & MultimediaSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$707.31 - $2,246.13$2,104.95
Multi-Stage$299.61 - $327.83$313.46
Blended Fair Value$1,209.20
Current Price$192.47
Upside528.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.78%18.87%3.482.492.091.091.332.750.451.010.790.46
YoY Growth--39.32%19.19%91.65%-18.04%-51.58%513.85%-55.79%27.94%73.45%-25.97%
Dividend Yield--2.36%1.78%1.73%0.94%1.00%2.32%0.40%0.98%0.69%0.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36,284.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,232.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)23,051.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,256.864,535.542,721.32
Cash Retained (M)23,051.3323,051.3323,051.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,256.86-4,535.54-2,721.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)15,794.4718,515.7920,330.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,212.663,212.663,212.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.925.766.33
LTM Dividend per Share4.124.124.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.925.766.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.049.8810.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$707.31$2,104.95$2,246.13
Upside / Downside267.49%993.65%1,067.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36,284.3238,642.8041,154.5943,829.6346,678.5649,712.6751,204.05
Payout Ratio36.47%47.18%57.88%68.59%79.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,232.9918,230.2123,821.1630,061.9237,013.3244,741.4047,363.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)16,901.6617,061.8717,222.08
Year 2 PV (M)20,475.6920,865.6921,259.38
Year 3 PV (M)23,956.8724,644.5825,345.33
Year 4 PV (M)27,346.9728,398.6629,480.39
Year 5 PV (M)30,647.7432,128.0433,664.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)843,211.97883,939.42926,225.61
Equity Value (M)962,540.901,007,038.271,053,197.78
Shares Outstanding (M)3,212.663,212.663,212.66
Fair Value$299.61$313.46$327.83
Upside / Downside55.67%62.86%70.33%

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