Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nofoth Food Products Company (9556.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.76 - $12.05$9.75
Multi-Stage$17.80 - $19.61$18.69
Blended Fair Value$14.22
Current Price$11.80
Upside20.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.120.060.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--100.00%300.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.01%0.74%0.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)47.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.758.595.15
Cash Retained (M)47.2247.2247.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.75-8.59-5.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.4838.6342.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)83.3683.3683.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.76$9.75$12.05
Upside / Downside-34.21%-17.39%2.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68.7368.0467.3666.6966.0265.3667.32
Payout Ratio31.29%43.04%54.78%66.52%78.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.5129.2836.9044.3651.6758.8362.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)27.2627.5427.82
Year 2 PV (M)31.9832.6433.30
Year 3 PV (M)35.8036.9038.03
Year 4 PV (M)38.8240.4242.08
Year 5 PV (M)41.1443.2945.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,309.151,377.321,448.31
Equity Value (M)1,484.151,558.121,635.06
Shares Outstanding (M)83.3683.3683.36
Fair Value$17.80$18.69$19.61
Upside / Downside50.89%58.40%66.23%

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