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Definitive Analysis

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The Hachijuni Bank, Ltd. (8359.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,898.20 - $24,949.52$21,854.62
Multi-Stage$3,131.37 - $3,427.61$3,276.77
Blended Fair Value$12,565.70
Current Price$1,546.00
Upside712.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS13.33%8.86%27.8920.7320.9514.7614.7514.9214.0015.2716.3617.27
YoY Growth--34.55%-1.04%41.95%0.04%-1.11%6.55%-8.35%-6.66%-5.26%44.70%
Dividend Yield--2.38%1.96%3.35%2.95%4.12%3.65%3.15%3.22%2.29%3.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)58,272.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,954.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)45,318.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11,654.407,284.004,370.40
Cash Retained (M)45,318.0045,318.0045,318.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-11,654.40-7,284.00-4,370.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)33,663.6038,034.0040,947.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)464.49464.49464.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share72.4781.8888.16
LTM Dividend per Share27.8927.8927.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share72.4781.8888.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend100.36109.77116.04
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,898.20$21,854.62$24,949.52
Upside / Downside346.20%1,313.62%1,513.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)58,272.0062,059.6866,093.5670,389.6474,964.9779,837.6982,232.82
Payout Ratio22.23%35.78%49.34%62.89%76.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,954.0022,207.5532,609.3344,269.5257,307.7571,853.9276,065.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)20,553.1320,747.9520,942.76
Year 2 PV (M)27,931.6528,463.6729,000.71
Year 3 PV (M)35,094.3136,101.7537,128.28
Year 4 PV (M)42,045.8143,662.7745,325.93
Year 5 PV (M)48,790.7151,147.3253,594.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,280,081.541,341,909.961,406,104.70
Equity Value (M)1,454,497.151,522,033.411,592,096.49
Shares Outstanding (M)464.49464.49464.49
Fair Value$3,131.37$3,276.77$3,427.61
Upside / Downside102.55%111.95%121.71%

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