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Changing Information Technology Inc. (8272.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.91 - $53.39$44.24
Multi-Stage$69.31 - $76.10$72.64
Blended Fair Value$58.44
Current Price$78.30
Upside-25.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%2.692.892.271.150.670.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---7.07%27.62%97.33%71.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.19%3.39%1.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)81.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.2910.186.11
Cash Retained (M)32.1032.1032.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.29-10.18-6.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.8121.9225.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.3618.3618.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.861.191.42
LTM Dividend per Share2.692.692.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.861.191.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.553.884.10
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$35.91$44.24$53.39
Upside / Downside-54.14%-43.50%-31.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)81.4680.6479.8479.0478.2577.4779.79
Payout Ratio60.59%66.47%72.36%78.24%84.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.3653.6157.7761.8465.8269.7273.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)49.2849.7850.28
Year 2 PV (M)48.8149.8250.83
Year 3 PV (M)48.0349.5251.04
Year 4 PV (M)47.0048.9550.96
Year 5 PV (M)45.7648.1550.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,033.901,087.741,143.80
Equity Value (M)1,272.791,333.951,397.53
Shares Outstanding (M)18.3618.3618.36
Fair Value$69.31$72.64$76.10
Upside / Downside-11.48%-7.23%-2.81%

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