Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Toyota Tsusho Corporation (8015.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32,244.79 - $64,164.91$60,131.92
Multi-Stage$9,861.75 - $10,798.63$10,321.56
Blended Fair Value$35,226.74
Current Price$4,102.00
Upside758.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.47%17.80%77.0462.0344.0233.3536.6933.0228.0220.6819.6718.32
YoY Growth--24.20%40.92%32.00%-9.10%11.10%17.86%35.49%5.11%7.37%22.38%
Dividend Yield--2.36%1.95%1.85%2.26%2.10%3.63%2.49%1.67%1.75%2.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)340,606.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)98,584.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)242,022.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68,121.2042,575.7525,545.45
Cash Retained (M)242,022.00242,022.00242,022.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-68,121.20-42,575.75-25,545.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)173,900.80199,446.25216,476.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,055.691,055.691,055.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share164.73188.93205.06
LTM Dividend per Share93.3893.3893.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share164.73188.93205.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend258.11282.31298.44
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32,244.79$60,131.92$64,164.91
Upside / Downside686.07%1,365.92%1,464.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)340,606.00362,745.39386,323.84411,434.89438,178.16466,659.74480,659.53
Payout Ratio28.94%41.15%53.37%65.58%77.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)98,584.00149,287.74206,166.44269,808.64340,853.27419,993.76444,610.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)139,063.11140,381.25141,699.38
Year 2 PV (M)178,893.11182,300.52185,740.07
Year 3 PV (M)218,081.74224,342.08230,721.10
Year 4 PV (M)256,636.67266,506.20276,657.68
Year 5 PV (M)294,565.52308,793.14323,565.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,323,671.559,774,008.3710,241,580.65
Equity Value (M)10,410,911.7010,896,331.5611,399,964.17
Shares Outstanding (M)1,055.691,055.691,055.69
Fair Value$9,861.75$10,321.56$10,798.63
Upside / Downside140.41%151.62%163.25%

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