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Definitive Analysis

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MATSUDA SANGYO Co., Ltd. (7456.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35,515.38 - $83,846.61$78,576.55
Multi-Stage$12,187.74 - $13,348.88$12,757.61
Blended Fair Value$45,667.08
Current Price$4,190.00
Upside989.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.87%10.18%65.0055.2749.3342.2635.4732.5029.4528.4528.4527.64
YoY Growth--17.60%12.05%16.71%19.15%9.14%10.35%3.53%0.00%2.93%12.05%
Dividend Yield--1.96%1.87%2.17%2.11%1.65%2.43%1.96%1.74%1.92%2.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,923.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,943.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,980.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,184.601,365.38819.23
Cash Retained (M)8,980.008,980.008,980.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,184.60-1,365.38-819.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,795.407,614.638,160.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25.9125.9125.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share262.29293.91314.99
LTM Dividend per Share75.0075.0075.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share262.29293.91314.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend337.28368.90389.98
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35,515.38$78,576.55$83,846.61
Upside / Downside747.62%1,775.34%1,901.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,923.0011,633.0012,389.1413,194.4314,052.0714,965.4615,414.42
Payout Ratio17.79%32.23%46.67%61.12%75.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,943.003,749.385,782.378,063.8110,617.4113,468.9114,258.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,487.423,520.483,553.53
Year 2 PV (M)5,002.615,097.905,194.08
Year 3 PV (M)6,488.986,675.266,865.07
Year 4 PV (M)7,946.958,252.578,566.91
Year 5 PV (M)9,376.919,829.8210,300.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)283,459.08297,150.25311,365.43
Equity Value (M)315,761.95330,526.27345,845.08
Shares Outstanding (M)25.9125.9125.91
Fair Value$12,187.74$12,757.61$13,348.88
Upside / Downside190.88%204.48%218.59%

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