Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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J-Lease Co.,Ltd. (7187.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18,719.34 - $25,301.91$23,711.59
Multi-Stage$4,197.09 - $4,599.86$4,394.75
Blended Fair Value$14,053.17
Current Price$1,341.00
Upside947.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%44.8334.8324.859.860.000.002.201.210.000.00
YoY Growth--28.73%40.13%151.98%0.00%0.00%-100.00%82.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.34%2.55%2.23%0.99%0.00%0.00%1.37%0.33%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,283.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)200.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,082.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)456.61285.38171.23
Cash Retained (M)2,082.192,082.192,082.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-456.61-285.38-171.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,625.581,796.811,910.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17.9517.9517.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share90.59100.13106.49
LTM Dividend per Share11.1911.1911.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share90.59100.13106.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend101.78111.32117.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18,719.34$23,711.59$25,301.91
Upside / Downside1,295.92%1,668.20%1,786.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,283.072,431.472,589.512,757.832,937.093,128.003,221.84
Payout Ratio8.80%25.04%41.28%57.52%73.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)200.87608.811,068.921,586.292,166.392,815.202,980.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)568.56573.95579.34
Year 2 PV (M)932.26950.02967.94
Year 3 PV (M)1,292.021,329.101,366.90
Year 4 PV (M)1,647.851,711.221,776.40
Year 5 PV (M)1,999.802,096.392,196.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)68,876.7572,203.5275,657.62
Equity Value (M)75,317.2378,864.2182,544.88
Shares Outstanding (M)17.9517.9517.95
Fair Value$4,197.09$4,394.75$4,599.86
Upside / Downside212.98%227.72%243.02%

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