Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.,Ltd (688800.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.35 - $78.47$50.99
Multi-Stage$25.70 - $28.06$26.86
Blended Fair Value$38.93
Current Price$75.12
Upside-48.18%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.70%59.60%0.180.380.210.010.110.070.020.080.010.00
YoY Growth---51.34%75.86%1,660.34%-88.73%63.79%273.34%-79.08%1,461.60%73.39%82.42%
Dividend Yield--0.48%1.58%0.46%0.02%0.21%0.13%0.03%0.16%0.01%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)302.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)81.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)220.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.4637.7922.67
Cash Retained (M)220.66220.66220.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.46-37.79-22.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)160.20182.88197.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)169.33169.33169.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.951.081.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.951.081.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.431.561.65
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.35$50.99$78.47
Upside / Downside-52.94%-32.12%4.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)302.30321.95342.88365.17388.90414.18426.61
Payout Ratio27.01%39.61%52.20%64.80%77.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)81.64127.51179.00236.64301.02372.77394.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)115.08116.17117.26
Year 2 PV (M)145.80148.57151.38
Year 3 PV (M)173.95178.95184.04
Year 4 PV (M)199.70207.38215.28
Year 5 PV (M)223.19233.97245.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,493.903,662.653,837.87
Equity Value (M)4,351.624,547.704,750.99
Shares Outstanding (M)169.33169.33169.33
Fair Value$25.70$26.86$28.06
Upside / Downside-65.79%-64.25%-62.65%

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