Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

APT Medical Inc. (688617.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$121.35 - $258.34$172.50
Multi-Stage$88.98 - $97.16$93.00
Blended Fair Value$132.75
Current Price$316.73
Upside-58.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS86.32%0.00%1.120.940.580.280.010.050.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--19.38%62.62%107.89%2,249.12%-76.32%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.42%0.45%0.34%0.27%0.01%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)768.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)170.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)598.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)153.6696.0457.62
Cash Retained (M)598.05598.05598.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-153.66-96.04-57.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)444.39502.01540.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.33119.33119.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.724.214.53
LTM Dividend per Share1.431.431.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.724.214.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.155.635.96
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$121.35$172.50$258.34
Upside / Downside-61.69%-45.54%-18.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)768.31818.25871.44928.08988.401,052.651,084.23
Payout Ratio22.16%35.73%49.30%62.86%76.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)170.26292.35429.58583.43755.46947.381,002.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)263.33265.82268.32
Year 2 PV (M)348.53355.17361.87
Year 3 PV (M)426.36438.60451.07
Year 4 PV (M)497.27516.40536.07
Year 5 PV (M)561.70588.83617.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,521.078,932.649,359.97
Equity Value (M)10,618.2611,097.4611,594.29
Shares Outstanding (M)119.33119.33119.33
Fair Value$88.98$93.00$97.16
Upside / Downside-71.91%-70.64%-69.32%

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