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Definitive Analysis

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AnHui Wanyi Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (688600.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.36 - $6.49$5.38
Multi-Stage$8.09 - $8.90$8.48
Blended Fair Value$6.93
Current Price$22.15
Upside-68.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.95%0.00%0.200.200.200.250.000.120.100.110.100.00
YoY Growth--0.25%0.65%-20.00%0.00%-100.00%20.00%-8.74%5.94%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.25%1.11%0.78%1.74%0.00%0.32%0.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.168.855.31
Cash Retained (M)57.1157.1157.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.16-8.85-5.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.9548.2651.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)131.87131.87131.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.36$5.38$6.49
Upside / Downside-80.31%-75.73%-70.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70.7870.0769.3768.6767.9967.3169.33
Payout Ratio19.32%33.45%47.59%61.73%75.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.6723.4433.0142.3951.5860.5864.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)21.5521.7721.99
Year 2 PV (M)27.9128.4929.07
Year 3 PV (M)32.9633.9835.02
Year 4 PV (M)36.8838.4139.98
Year 5 PV (M)39.8341.9144.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)907.09954.321,003.50
Equity Value (M)1,066.231,118.881,173.64
Shares Outstanding (M)131.87131.87131.87
Fair Value$8.09$8.48$8.90
Upside / Downside-63.50%-61.69%-59.82%

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