Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nanjing Vishee Medical Technology Co., Ltd (688580.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51.85 - $261.99$107.29
Multi-Stage$29.30 - $32.00$30.62
Blended Fair Value$68.95
Current Price$49.59
Upside39.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.19%36.90%1.070.530.930.750.530.360.220.260.090.23
YoY Growth--100.23%-42.59%23.77%42.82%45.38%64.77%-14.48%192.25%-61.63%395.41%
Dividend Yield--3.15%1.47%1.90%1.68%0.71%0.20%0.12%0.00%0.00%0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)125.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.1915.749.45
Cash Retained (M)48.7148.7148.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.19-15.74-9.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.5232.9739.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)95.6195.6195.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.340.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.340.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.22
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$51.85$107.29$261.99
Upside / Downside4.56%116.35%428.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)125.95134.14142.86152.14162.03172.56177.74
Payout Ratio61.33%67.06%72.80%78.53%84.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.2489.96103.99119.48136.54155.31164.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)82.7883.5784.35
Year 2 PV (M)88.0789.7591.44
Year 3 PV (M)93.1295.7998.51
Year 4 PV (M)97.93101.69105.57
Year 5 PV (M)102.51107.46112.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,336.552,449.412,566.58
Equity Value (M)2,800.962,927.663,059.06
Shares Outstanding (M)95.6195.6195.61
Fair Value$29.30$30.62$32.00
Upside / Downside-40.92%-38.25%-35.48%

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