Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nanya New Material Technology Co.,Ltd (688519.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.96 - $33.15$20.60
Multi-Stage$9.82 - $10.73$10.27
Blended Fair Value$15.44
Current Price$74.50
Upside-79.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.46%16.88%0.120.310.310.220.050.120.050.160.350.03
YoY Growth---60.44%0.74%37.05%336.43%-57.08%159.24%-71.10%-54.83%1,162.61%8.79%
Dividend Yield--0.34%1.43%1.15%0.66%0.18%0.19%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)152.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)123.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.4219.0111.41
Cash Retained (M)123.01123.01123.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.42-19.01-11.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)92.59104.00111.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)231.70231.70231.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.450.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.450.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.570.61
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.96$20.60$33.15
Upside / Downside-81.26%-72.34%-55.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)152.11162.00172.53183.75195.69208.41214.66
Payout Ratio19.13%33.31%47.48%61.65%75.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.1053.9681.92113.28148.38187.57198.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)48.8349.2949.75
Year 2 PV (M)67.0868.3669.65
Year 3 PV (M)83.9586.3688.81
Year 4 PV (M)99.50103.33107.26
Year 5 PV (M)113.82119.32125.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,862.511,952.472,045.87
Equity Value (M)2,275.692,379.122,486.37
Shares Outstanding (M)231.70231.70231.70
Fair Value$9.82$10.27$10.73
Upside / Downside-86.82%-86.22%-85.60%

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