Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qingdao Daneng Environmental Protection Equipment Co., Ltd. (688501.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$251.02 - $295.74$277.15
Multi-Stage$169.16 - $185.68$177.27
Blended Fair Value$227.21
Current Price$28.50
Upside697.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS42.49%0.00%0.390.180.230.090.090.070.060.060.000.00
YoY Growth--114.05%-22.41%156.39%0.56%37.19%4.44%-1.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.98%1.10%1.31%0.69%0.47%0.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)183.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)167.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.6622.9113.75
Cash Retained (M)167.44167.44167.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.66-22.91-13.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)130.78144.52153.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)123.27123.27123.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.061.171.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.061.171.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.301.38
WACC / Discount Rate2.41%2.41%2.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$251.02$277.15$295.74
Upside / Downside780.76%872.46%937.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)183.31195.22207.91221.42235.82251.14258.68
Payout Ratio8.66%24.93%41.19%57.46%73.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.8748.6685.65127.24173.87226.03239.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.41%2.41%2.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)47.0747.5247.96
Year 2 PV (M)80.1481.6783.21
Year 3 PV (M)115.17118.47121.84
Year 4 PV (M)152.24158.09164.11
Year 5 PV (M)191.44200.69210.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,265.9821,244.8422,261.15
Equity Value (M)20,852.0321,851.2722,888.56
Shares Outstanding (M)123.27123.27123.27
Fair Value$169.16$177.27$185.68
Upside / Downside493.55%521.99%551.52%

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