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Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co., Ltd. (688366.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.77 - $316.36$101.98
Multi-Stage$35.09 - $38.25$36.64
Blended Fair Value$69.31
Current Price$51.96
Upside33.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.56%13.96%1.130.300.530.380.540.350.350.370.250.22
YoY Growth--279.27%-43.79%38.65%-29.13%55.01%0.00%-6.71%46.46%17.88%-29.35%
Dividend Yield--1.91%0.41%0.73%0.55%0.68%0.69%0.37%0.40%0.27%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)384.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)343.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.8448.0328.82
Cash Retained (M)40.3640.3640.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.84-48.03-28.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)-36.49-7.6711.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)230.32230.32230.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.030.05
LTM Dividend per Share1.491.491.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.030.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.461.54
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$55.77$101.98$316.36
Upside / Downside7.34%96.27%508.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)384.21409.18435.78464.10494.27526.39542.19
Payout Ratio89.50%89.60%89.70%89.80%89.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)343.85366.61390.88416.76444.34473.76501.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)336.19339.38342.57
Year 2 PV (M)328.71334.97341.29
Year 3 PV (M)321.38330.61340.01
Year 4 PV (M)314.23326.31338.74
Year 5 PV (M)307.23322.07337.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,473.206,785.867,110.48
Equity Value (M)8,080.948,439.198,810.56
Shares Outstanding (M)230.32230.32230.32
Fair Value$35.09$36.64$38.25
Upside / Downside-32.47%-29.48%-26.38%

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