Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chison Medical Technologies Co., Ltd. (688358.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - SpecialtiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.35 - $91.39$48.18
Multi-Stage$35.28 - $38.70$36.96
Blended Fair Value$42.57
Current Price$32.90
Upside29.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.27%0.00%0.800.700.360.570.710.560.170.120.270.00
YoY Growth--14.03%96.22%-37.50%-20.00%26.98%232.44%45.14%-56.48%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.58%2.05%0.99%2.00%2.06%1.14%0.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)136.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)57.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)78.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.2017.0010.20
Cash Retained (M)78.5678.5678.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.20-17.00-10.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.3661.5668.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)112.20112.20112.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.550.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.550.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.061.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.14%6.14%6.14%
Growth Rate2.86%3.86%4.86%
Fair Value$30.35$48.18$91.39
Upside / Downside-7.75%46.43%177.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)136.02141.26146.71152.37158.24164.35169.28
Payout Ratio42.24%51.79%61.35%70.90%80.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)57.4673.1690.00108.02127.31147.91156.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.14%6.14%6.14%
Growth Rate2.86%3.86%4.86%
Year 1 PV (M)68.2768.9369.59
Year 2 PV (M)78.3579.8881.43
Year 3 PV (M)87.7590.3392.97
Year 4 PV (M)96.49100.29104.21
Year 5 PV (M)104.60109.79115.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,522.953,697.573,879.04
Equity Value (M)3,958.404,146.794,342.42
Shares Outstanding (M)112.20112.20112.20
Fair Value$35.28$36.96$38.70
Upside / Downside7.23%12.33%17.63%

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