Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Oriental Semiconductor Company Limited (688261.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.04 - $4.31$3.67
Multi-Stage$4.46 - $4.90$4.68
Blended Fair Value$4.17
Current Price$76.67
Upside-94.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.140.800.180.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---82.58%348.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.34%1.70%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)58.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.637.274.36
Cash Retained (M)53.1053.1053.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.63-7.27-4.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.4745.8448.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)124.95124.95124.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.04$3.67$4.31
Upside / Downside-96.03%-95.21%-94.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)58.1557.5756.9956.4255.8655.3056.96
Payout Ratio8.67%24.94%41.20%57.47%73.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.0414.3623.4832.4241.1949.7752.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)12.9213.0513.18
Year 2 PV (M)19.0219.4119.81
Year 3 PV (M)23.6424.3725.12
Year 4 PV (M)27.0228.1429.30
Year 5 PV (M)29.3930.9232.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)445.34468.53492.68
Equity Value (M)557.34584.43612.60
Shares Outstanding (M)124.95124.95124.95
Fair Value$4.46$4.68$4.90
Upside / Downside-94.18%-93.90%-93.61%

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