Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp. (688233.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.31 - $4.70$4.00
Multi-Stage$4.94 - $5.43$5.18
Blended Fair Value$4.59
Current Price$50.77
Upside-90.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.090.390.090.140.300.000.000.010.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-75.61%310.00%-33.33%-52.46%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.46%0.74%0.12%0.41%0.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.9710.606.36
Cash Retained (M)72.1572.1572.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.97-10.60-6.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)55.1861.5465.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)168.94168.94168.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.360.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.360.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.46
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.31$4.00$4.70
Upside / Downside-93.48%-92.13%-90.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.8383.9983.1582.3181.4980.6883.10
Payout Ratio14.96%29.96%44.97%59.98%74.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.6925.1737.3949.3761.1172.6176.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)22.6722.9023.13
Year 2 PV (M)30.3430.9731.60
Year 3 PV (M)36.0937.2138.35
Year 4 PV (M)40.2441.9143.63
Year 5 PV (M)43.0745.3247.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)662.05696.52732.42
Equity Value (M)834.47874.83916.78
Shares Outstanding (M)168.94168.94168.94
Fair Value$4.94$5.18$5.43
Upside / Downside-90.27%-89.80%-89.31%

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