Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ChengDu ShengNuo Biotec Co.,Ltd. (688117.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.23 - $65.74$35.11
Multi-Stage$16.22 - $17.75$16.97
Blended Fair Value$26.04
Current Price$40.91
Upside-36.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS143.25%0.00%0.250.210.200.000.000.000.000.210.000.00
YoY Growth--17.08%8.81%107,176.87%0.00%-100.00%-3.47%-98.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.20%1.02%1.14%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)120.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)94.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.0215.019.01
Cash Retained (M)94.8094.8094.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.02-15.01-9.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)70.7879.7985.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)136.32136.32136.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.590.63
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.590.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.770.81
WACC / Discount Rate8.22%8.22%8.22%
Growth Rate4.90%5.90%6.90%
Fair Value$22.23$35.11$65.74
Upside / Downside-45.65%-14.18%60.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)120.09127.17134.67142.61151.02159.93164.72
Payout Ratio21.06%34.84%48.63%62.42%76.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.2944.3165.4989.02115.09143.93152.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.22%8.22%8.22%
Growth Rate4.90%5.90%6.90%
Year 1 PV (M)40.5640.9541.33
Year 2 PV (M)54.8755.9256.98
Year 3 PV (M)68.2670.2372.24
Year 4 PV (M)80.7883.9187.12
Year 5 PV (M)92.4796.96101.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,874.441,965.502,060.08
Equity Value (M)2,211.372,313.462,419.37
Shares Outstanding (M)136.32136.32136.32
Fair Value$16.22$16.97$17.75
Upside / Downside-60.35%-58.52%-56.62%

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