Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Liance Electromechanical Technology Co., Ltd. (688113.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$274.74 - $323.69$303.35
Multi-Stage$187.71 - $206.00$196.69
Blended Fair Value$250.02
Current Price$40.25
Upside521.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS13.15%0.00%0.580.190.120.000.190.310.290.140.000.00
YoY Growth--198.53%58.68%0.00%-100.00%-37.61%6.73%106.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.92%0.49%0.24%0.00%0.29%0.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)102.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)74.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.5412.847.70
Cash Retained (M)74.2874.2874.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.54-12.84-7.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.7461.4466.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)63.1163.1163.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.850.971.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.850.971.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.301.421.51
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$274.74$303.35$323.69
Upside / Downside582.59%653.66%704.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)102.72109.39116.51124.08132.14140.73144.95
Payout Ratio27.68%40.15%52.61%65.07%77.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.4343.9261.2980.74102.46126.66134.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)42.5742.9743.38
Year 2 PV (M)57.5958.6959.79
Year 3 PV (M)73.5375.6577.80
Year 4 PV (M)90.4593.9397.51
Year 5 PV (M)108.38113.62119.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,473.7012,027.8912,603.28
Equity Value (M)11,846.2312,412.7413,000.81
Shares Outstanding (M)63.1163.1163.11
Fair Value$187.71$196.69$206.00
Upside / Downside366.36%388.66%411.81%

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