Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co., Ltd. (688089.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.33 - $41.54$27.57
Multi-Stage$13.72 - $15.01$14.36
Blended Fair Value$20.96
Current Price$25.55
Upside-17.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.45%77.14%0.200.220.240.240.360.270.220.000.001.09
YoY Growth---7.02%-7.62%0.00%-34.00%33.31%25.02%0.00%0.00%-100.00%163,487.67%
Dividend Yield--0.82%1.45%0.85%0.90%1.22%1.17%0.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)169.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)168.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.9321.2112.73
Cash Retained (M)168.81168.81168.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.93-21.21-12.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)134.87147.60156.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)167.27167.27167.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.880.93
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.880.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.33$27.57$41.54
Upside / Downside-24.33%7.91%62.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)169.67180.70192.44204.95218.27232.46239.43
Payout Ratio0.51%18.41%36.30%54.20%72.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.8633.2669.86111.09157.38209.21221.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)29.9730.2530.54
Year 2 PV (M)56.7357.8158.91
Year 3 PV (M)81.2983.6386.00
Year 4 PV (M)103.78107.77111.88
Year 5 PV (M)124.32130.33136.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,899.601,991.352,086.62
Equity Value (M)2,295.702,401.152,510.51
Shares Outstanding (M)167.27167.27167.27
Fair Value$13.72$14.36$15.01
Upside / Downside-46.28%-43.81%-41.26%

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