Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Assure Tech (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd. (688075.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.02 - $86.72$42.45
Multi-Stage$17.16 - $18.74$17.94
Blended Fair Value$30.20
Current Price$38.91
Upside-22.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS279.29%0.00%0.803.591.880.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---77.65%91.22%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-59.26%-17.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.02%10.35%3.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)120.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)68.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.1715.119.07
Cash Retained (M)68.0668.0668.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.17-15.11-9.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.8952.9558.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)126.72126.72126.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.420.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.420.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.88
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.02$42.45$86.72
Upside / Downside-33.12%9.11%122.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)120.87128.73137.09146.01155.50165.60170.57
Payout Ratio43.69%52.95%62.21%71.48%80.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.8168.1785.29104.36125.54149.04157.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)62.1862.7763.36
Year 2 PV (M)70.9872.3373.69
Year 3 PV (M)79.2281.4983.81
Year 4 PV (M)86.9390.2893.72
Year 5 PV (M)94.1598.69103.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,781.751,867.811,957.16
Equity Value (M)2,175.202,273.372,375.15
Shares Outstanding (M)126.72126.72126.72
Fair Value$17.16$17.94$18.74
Upside / Downside-55.89%-53.89%-51.83%

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