Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China (688012.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.12 - $132.87$86.59
Multi-Stage$42.29 - $46.25$44.23
Blended Fair Value$65.41
Current Price$298.99
Upside-78.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS195.62%0.00%0.320.220.010.000.000.000.020.020.020.00
YoY Growth--45.61%4,069.38%0.00%-100.00%-70.61%-92.78%-14.88%3.37%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.17%0.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.03%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,913.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,899.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)382.78239.24143.54
Cash Retained (M)1,899.941,899.941,899.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-382.78-239.24-143.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,517.161,660.711,756.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)627.29627.29627.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.422.652.80
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.422.652.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.442.672.82
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$60.12$86.59$132.87
Upside / Downside-79.89%-71.04%-55.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,913.892,038.292,170.782,311.882,462.152,622.192,700.86
Payout Ratio0.73%18.58%36.44%54.29%72.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.95378.78790.971,255.151,776.342,359.972,498.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)341.78345.02348.26
Year 2 PV (M)644.01656.28668.66
Year 3 PV (M)922.14948.61975.58
Year 4 PV (M)1,177.581,222.871,269.45
Year 5 PV (M)1,411.681,479.871,550.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,030.5723,094.6524,199.46
Equity Value (M)26,527.7627,747.2929,012.07
Shares Outstanding (M)627.29627.29627.29
Fair Value$42.29$44.23$46.25
Upside / Downside-85.86%-85.21%-84.53%

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