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Definitive Analysis

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Advantest Corporation (6857.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,738.79 - $14,392.58$9,590.42
Multi-Stage$4,862.42 - $5,313.44$5,083.84
Blended Fair Value$7,337.13
Current Price$14,650.00
Upside-49.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.71%31.69%37.1833.8634.5934.6521.2222.3618.765.065.474.75
YoY Growth--9.80%-2.11%-0.15%63.24%-5.07%19.16%270.79%-7.42%15.14%100.23%
Dividend Yield--0.35%0.53%0.72%1.91%0.85%1.46%2.38%0.88%1.14%1.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)261,680.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28,709.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)232,971.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52,336.0032,710.0019,626.00
Cash Retained (M)232,971.00232,971.00232,971.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-52,336.00-32,710.00-19,626.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)180,635.00200,261.00213,345.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)734.74734.74734.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share245.85272.56290.37
LTM Dividend per Share39.0739.0739.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share245.85272.56290.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend284.92311.63329.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,738.79$9,590.42$14,392.58
Upside / Downside-54.00%-34.54%-1.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)261,680.00278,689.20296,804.00316,096.26336,642.51358,524.28369,280.01
Payout Ratio10.97%26.78%42.58%58.39%74.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28,709.0074,624.12126,386.92184,563.59249,769.24322,671.85341,584.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)67,227.1767,864.4068,501.62
Year 2 PV (M)102,573.06104,526.79106,498.95
Year 3 PV (M)134,940.65138,814.31142,761.40
Year 4 PV (M)164,513.42170,840.14177,347.61
Year 5 PV (M)191,464.84200,712.66210,314.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,911,898.673,052,544.463,198,573.10
Equity Value (M)3,572,617.803,735,302.753,903,997.10
Shares Outstanding (M)734.74734.74734.74
Fair Value$4,862.42$5,083.84$5,313.44
Upside / Downside-66.81%-65.30%-63.73%

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