Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Healthconn Corp. (6665.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.20 - $7.94$6.48
Multi-Stage$11.49 - $12.62$12.04
Blended Fair Value$9.26
Current Price$25.00
Upside-62.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-56.47%0.00%0.050.460.712.264.513.322.820.000.000.00
YoY Growth---88.60%-35.41%-68.79%-49.86%35.63%17.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.28%1.57%2.02%4.70%8.79%2.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.323.321.99
Cash Retained (M)3.553.553.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.32-3.32-1.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.770.231.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45.3745.3745.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.000.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.000.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.20$6.48$7.94
Upside / Downside-79.19%-74.07%-68.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26.5826.3226.0525.7925.5425.2826.04
Payout Ratio86.65%87.32%87.99%88.66%89.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.0422.9822.9322.8722.8122.7524.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)21.3021.5121.73
Year 2 PV (M)19.6920.0920.50
Year 3 PV (M)18.2018.7619.33
Year 4 PV (M)16.8217.5218.23
Year 5 PV (M)15.5416.3517.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)429.85452.23475.54
Equity Value (M)521.39546.46572.53
Shares Outstanding (M)45.3745.3745.37
Fair Value$11.49$12.04$12.62
Upside / Downside-54.03%-51.82%-49.53%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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