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PHC Holdings Corporation (6523.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$374.36 - $557.22$461.48
Multi-Stage$749.19 - $821.30$784.56
Blended Fair Value$623.02
Current Price$979.00
Upside-36.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%38.8771.4872.710.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---45.62%-1.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.26%6.10%4.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,825.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,297.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)528.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,165.00728.13436.88
Cash Retained (M)528.00528.00528.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,165.00-728.13-436.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)-637.00-200.1391.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)126.47126.47126.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share-5.04-1.580.72
LTM Dividend per Share41.8841.8841.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share-5.04-1.580.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend36.8540.3042.60
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$374.36$461.48$557.22
Upside / Downside-61.76%-52.86%-43.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,825.005,766.755,709.085,651.995,595.475,539.525,705.70
Payout Ratio90.94%90.75%90.56%90.37%90.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,297.005,233.245,170.225,107.955,046.404,985.575,277.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,812.434,861.534,910.64
Year 2 PV (M)4,372.164,461.854,552.44
Year 3 PV (M)3,972.164,095.004,220.35
Year 4 PV (M)3,608.743,758.303,912.47
Year 5 PV (M)3,278.553,449.273,627.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)74,705.5278,595.6182,646.09
Equity Value (M)94,749.5699,221.57103,869.03
Shares Outstanding (M)126.47126.47126.47
Fair Value$749.19$784.56$821.30
Upside / Downside-23.47%-19.86%-16.11%

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