Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nikkiso Co., Ltd. (6376.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,537.72 - $7,267.89$3,970.86
Multi-Stage$2,699.74 - $2,961.19$2,828.01
Blended Fair Value$3,399.43
Current Price$1,283.00
Upside164.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.88%4.88%29.9424.9424.1721.4721.4721.4717.1717.1618.2418.61
YoY Growth--20.07%3.18%12.57%0.00%0.00%25.02%0.09%-5.95%-1.94%0.08%
Dividend Yield--2.35%1.95%2.57%2.34%1.91%2.66%1.28%1.55%1.43%2.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,933.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,987.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,946.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,386.60866.63519.98
Cash Retained (M)4,946.004,946.004,946.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,386.60-866.63-519.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,559.404,079.384,426.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.3266.3266.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share53.6761.5166.73
LTM Dividend per Share29.9629.9629.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share53.6761.5166.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend83.6391.4796.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate3.14%4.14%5.14%
Fair Value$2,537.72$3,970.86$7,267.89
Upside / Downside97.80%209.50%466.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,933.007,220.077,519.027,830.358,154.588,492.228,746.99
Payout Ratio28.66%40.93%53.20%65.46%77.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,987.002,955.033,999.825,126.066,338.727,643.008,090.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate3.14%4.14%5.14%
Year 1 PV (M)2,747.022,773.652,800.29
Year 2 PV (M)3,456.523,523.873,591.87
Year 3 PV (M)4,117.964,238.904,362.19
Year 4 PV (M)4,733.684,919.955,111.66
Year 5 PV (M)5,305.925,568.185,840.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)158,697.43166,541.32174,692.34
Equity Value (M)179,058.53187,565.87196,399.05
Shares Outstanding (M)66.3266.3266.32
Fair Value$2,699.74$2,828.01$2,961.19
Upside / Downside110.42%120.42%130.80%

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