Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ebara Corporation (6361.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12,916.50 - $31,624.75$29,637.02
Multi-Stage$4,598.17 - $5,033.12$4,811.65
Blended Fair Value$17,224.33
Current Price$2,778.00
Upside520.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720172016
DPS31.10%18.81%49.2340.9739.4022.6112.3612.719.8913.1812.0714.32
YoY Growth--20.17%3.99%74.23%83.00%-2.79%28.46%-24.91%9.15%-15.72%63.01%
Dividend Yield--2.19%1.53%3.21%1.65%1.37%3.09%1.54%1.70%1.94%2.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73,527.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25,404.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)48,123.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14,705.409,190.885,514.53
Cash Retained (M)48,123.0048,123.0048,123.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-14,705.40-9,190.88-5,514.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)33,417.6038,932.1342,608.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)462.38462.38462.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share72.2784.2092.15
LTM Dividend per Share54.9454.9454.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share72.2784.2092.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend127.21139.14147.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12,916.50$29,637.02$31,624.75
Upside / Downside364.96%966.85%1,038.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73,527.0078,306.2683,396.1688,816.9194,590.01100,738.36103,760.51
Payout Ratio34.55%45.64%56.73%67.82%78.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25,404.0035,739.3347,310.9360,235.8374,641.0990,664.5395,978.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)33,230.7733,545.7533,860.74
Year 2 PV (M)40,902.4641,681.5342,467.96
Year 3 PV (M)48,421.3449,811.3451,227.69
Year 4 PV (M)55,789.6757,935.1860,141.99
Year 5 PV (M)63,009.6666,053.0669,212.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,884,753.661,975,787.972,070,306.37
Equity Value (M)2,126,107.562,224,814.832,327,217.68
Shares Outstanding (M)462.38462.38462.38
Fair Value$4,598.17$4,811.65$5,033.12
Upside / Downside65.52%73.21%81.18%

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