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Definitive Analysis

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Nagaoka International Corporation (6239.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,023.90 - $1,581.91$1,282.92
Multi-Stage$2,289.04 - $2,521.44$2,402.95
Blended Fair Value$1,842.93
Current Price$1,480.00
Upside24.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%34.0223.1920.1615.129.900.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--46.75%15.04%33.34%52.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.30%1.82%2.02%2.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)772.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)237.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)535.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)154.4496.5257.91
Cash Retained (M)535.20535.20535.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-154.44-96.52-57.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)380.76438.67477.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.996.996.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share54.5062.7868.31
LTM Dividend per Share33.9233.9233.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share54.5062.7868.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend88.4296.70102.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,023.90$1,282.92$1,581.91
Upside / Downside-30.82%-13.32%6.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)772.20764.48756.83749.26741.77734.35756.38
Payout Ratio30.69%42.55%54.41%66.28%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)237.00325.31411.83496.59579.61660.92699.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)302.48305.56308.65
Year 2 PV (M)356.05363.35370.73
Year 3 PV (M)399.19411.53424.13
Year 4 PV (M)433.22451.18469.68
Year 5 PV (M)459.32483.24508.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,043.1514,774.4115,535.82
Equity Value (M)15,993.4116,789.2717,617.16
Shares Outstanding (M)6.996.996.99
Fair Value$2,289.04$2,402.95$2,521.44
Upside / Downside54.66%62.36%70.37%

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