Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Toyota Industries Corporation (6201.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32,891.92 - $135,676.66$84,702.13
Multi-Stage$16,363.60 - $17,894.20$17,114.92
Blended Fair Value$50,908.52
Current Price$16,640.00
Upside205.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.69%10.65%285.91205.64185.07164.51154.23164.51159.37138.81124.55124.84
YoY Growth--39.04%11.11%12.50%6.66%-6.25%3.22%14.82%11.45%-0.24%20.11%
Dividend Yield--1.75%1.50%1.80%1.96%1.60%2.88%2.64%2.24%2.11%3.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)206,008.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)85,066.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)120,942.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41,201.6025,751.0015,450.60
Cash Retained (M)120,942.00120,942.00120,942.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-41,201.60-25,751.00-15,450.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)79,740.4095,191.00105,491.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)301.97301.97301.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share264.07315.24349.35
LTM Dividend per Share281.71281.71281.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share264.07315.24349.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend545.78596.94631.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32,891.92$84,702.13$135,676.66
Upside / Downside97.67%409.03%715.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)206,008.00219,398.52233,659.42248,847.29265,022.36282,248.81290,716.28
Payout Ratio41.29%51.03%60.78%70.52%80.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)85,066.00111,967.97142,007.78175,479.71212,703.01254,023.93268,912.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)103,418.22104,398.49105,378.75
Year 2 PV (M)121,148.68123,456.22125,785.53
Year 3 PV (M)138,272.78142,242.10146,286.66
Year 4 PV (M)154,805.61160,758.99166,882.46
Year 5 PV (M)170,761.89179,009.75187,573.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,252,856.594,458,271.164,671,547.42
Equity Value (M)4,941,263.775,168,136.705,403,454.11
Shares Outstanding (M)301.97301.97301.97
Fair Value$16,363.60$17,114.92$17,894.20
Upside / Downside-1.66%2.85%7.54%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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