Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hengsheng Energy Co., Ltd (605580.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.20 - $6.54$5.28
Multi-Stage$7.16 - $7.85$7.50
Blended Fair Value$6.39
Current Price$27.93
Upside-77.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.82%0.00%0.380.450.370.020.230.200.190.050.060.07
YoY Growth---14.63%21.11%1,722.55%-91.08%13.70%4.30%258.14%-10.35%-11.40%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.35%4.41%3.44%0.22%2.65%2.33%2.23%0.62%0.70%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)121.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)82.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.3115.199.12
Cash Retained (M)39.1839.1839.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.31-15.19-9.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.8723.9930.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)278.47278.47278.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate-0.43%0.57%1.57%
Fair Value$4.20$5.28$6.54
Upside / Downside-84.95%-81.08%-76.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)121.55122.24122.93123.63124.33125.04128.79
Payout Ratio67.76%72.21%76.66%81.11%85.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)82.3688.2794.24100.27106.37112.54119.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate-0.43%0.57%1.57%
Year 1 PV (M)81.0481.8582.67
Year 2 PV (M)79.4381.0482.66
Year 3 PV (M)77.6079.9682.37
Year 4 PV (M)75.5878.6681.83
Year 5 PV (M)73.4177.1781.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,606.471,688.781,774.43
Equity Value (M)1,993.532,087.462,185.04
Shares Outstanding (M)278.47278.47278.47
Fair Value$7.16$7.50$7.85
Upside / Downside-74.37%-73.16%-71.91%

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