Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Ficont Industry (Beijing) Co., Ltd. (605305.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$408.21 - $480.94$450.71
Multi-Stage$287.85 - $315.94$301.63
Blended Fair Value$376.17
Current Price$41.53
Upside805.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.73%75.32%0.200.310.330.260.200.130.100.070.020.02
YoY Growth---36.36%-3.92%25.15%30.49%52.21%29.89%53.74%203.03%40.65%2,020.60%
Dividend Yield--0.71%1.17%1.01%0.84%0.71%0.46%0.36%0.23%0.08%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)514.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)95.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)419.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)102.9964.3738.62
Cash Retained (M)419.32419.32419.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-102.99-64.37-38.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)316.33354.95380.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)212.94212.94212.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.491.671.79
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.491.671.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.932.122.24
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$408.21$450.71$480.94
Upside / Downside882.93%985.26%1,058.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)514.96548.43584.08622.04662.48705.54726.70
Payout Ratio18.57%32.86%47.14%61.43%75.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)95.63180.20275.35382.11501.59634.98672.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)175.85177.51179.18
Year 2 PV (M)262.21267.21272.25
Year 3 PV (M)355.09365.28375.67
Year 4 PV (M)454.86472.36490.35
Year 5 PV (M)561.93589.07617.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)59,486.0562,359.2565,342.41
Equity Value (M)61,295.9964,230.6867,277.11
Shares Outstanding (M)212.94212.94212.94
Fair Value$287.85$301.63$315.94
Upside / Downside593.12%626.30%660.75%

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