Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jiangsu Rongtai Industry Co., Ltd. (605133.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.32 - $24.24$17.02
Multi-Stage$11.73 - $12.85$12.28
Blended Fair Value$14.65
Current Price$41.28
Upside-64.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.02%0.00%0.180.150.120.190.080.100.580.110.110.00
YoY Growth--21.30%23.43%-34.42%120.03%-10.81%-83.66%416.89%-0.50%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.73%0.94%0.46%1.28%0.45%0.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)185.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)167.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.0523.1513.89
Cash Retained (M)167.94167.94167.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.05-23.15-13.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)130.90144.79154.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)249.89249.89249.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.580.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.580.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Fair Value$12.32$17.02$24.24
Upside / Downside-70.16%-58.78%-41.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)185.23193.83202.82212.24222.09232.40239.37
Payout Ratio9.33%25.47%41.60%57.73%73.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.2949.3684.37122.53164.05209.16221.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Year 1 PV (M)45.0045.4445.87
Year 2 PV (M)70.1471.5072.87
Year 3 PV (M)92.8795.5998.35
Year 4 PV (M)113.37117.81122.38
Year 5 PV (M)131.79138.27145.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,477.712,599.572,726.18
Equity Value (M)2,930.873,068.163,210.65
Shares Outstanding (M)249.89249.89249.89
Fair Value$11.73$12.28$12.85
Upside / Downside-71.59%-70.26%-68.88%

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